What You Need to Know to Forecast Fall 2023

Sep 6, 2023
2 min read

Where are we compared to this time last year? How does 2023 compare from year to date? Are we ahead, or are we falling behind? 

Let’s start by taking a look at home prices. In August of 2022, the median sales price for homes in NWA stood at $328,575. Fast forward to August 2023, and we witnessed a 4% increase, with a median sales price of $341,990. 

Let’s dive in a little further and take a look at the price per square foot. In 2022, the average price per sqft was $209. In August 2023, the average price per sqft was $220, a notable increase of 5%. As inventory continues to be restricted, we expect the price per sqft to continue to increase moderately but keep it’s upward trajectory. 

In 2022, there were 3,313 active listings on the market. As of August 2023, we saw a 2% increase with 3,379 active listings. This is indicative that we still need more inventory in NWA. From year to date, 2022, there were 7,673 closed transactions. The current Year-to-date has decreased by 13%,  with 6,748 closed transactions. 

This is where we saw a notable shift in sales volume from 2022 to 2023. In 2022, sales volume was approximately 2.9 billion, which was the highest recorded in NWA.  Year to date in 2023 has brought on a 9% downward shift, just over 2.7 billion. We expect a 10% decrease in sales volume by the end of this year. 

One of the best leading indicators is building permits. In July of 2022, there were a total of 4,695 permits issued in NWA. As of July 2023, the NWA real estate market saw a total of 3,293 building permits issued, a 30% decrease in building permits. Although we saw a slight increase in inventory from last year, we still expect it to be an issue with the decreased number of building permits year-to-date. Based on this information, we expect the price per sqft to continue upward. 

We hope you can utilize this data to understand and position yourself within the market. Generally speaking, this data reveals a healthy market with healthy transaction numbers, sales volume, and closed sales. The potential red flags we see on the horizon are restricted inventory, lower building permits than last year, as well as continued rising interest rates. Overall, the NWA real market continues to thrive and outperform the nation in most metrics. We continue to attract new residents, at approximately 12,000 new residents per year. 






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