2023 - The Year of Extremely Volatile Interest Rates

Jan 3, 2024
3 min read

It was seemingly the story the entire year. Rates hit their highest in about two months, go just over 8%, give or take, and are currently in the 6’s with buy-down options into the high 5’s with good credit. Simply put- the cost of ownership has risen. Homeowners insurance nationwide has risen about 20%, and the counties reassessed your home value. Everyone saw increases on those so don’t be shocked if your escrow account is low; you’ll be getting a notice very soon with your new payment.

𝙃𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙬𝙚 𝙜𝙤, 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙉𝙐𝙈𝘽𝙀𝙍𝙎.

𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞-𝐟𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝟏 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐬- 𝟐𝟔𝟕 this year. 2022 had 253. The average accepted sales price this year is 99%, down from the 102% average accepted price last year.

The 𝐓𝐎𝐏 𝐓𝐇𝐑𝐄𝐄 Most Expensive Single-Family Sales:

1. The castle. Yes, that one. The Dromberg finally sold. 4.8 million. 𝐈𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟕, yes, 2017 for 8.6 million. It was actively listed for 2,356 days during that time.

2. A stunning 8,000 sq ft home lake property on Beaver Lake. It took nearly a year to sell and closed at 4.2 million with an original listing price of 6.95 million.

3. A highly unique 7,000-plus-square-foot home on Dead Horse Mountain with 165 acres, complete with a race track and shops for 4.25 million.

𝘼𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙨𝙖𝙡𝙚/𝙢𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖𝙣 𝙨𝙖𝙡𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 2023 compared to 2022. 2022 𝙣𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙨𝙞𝙨 are strictly single-family homes. No condos/multi-family etc included.

Bella Vista- 379k average, 349k median (362/340)

Bentonville- 524k average, 450 median. (504/420)

Cave Springs- 552k average, 520 median. (484, 475)

Centerton- 382k average, 335 median. (380/330)

Rogers- 486k average, 375 median. (457/399)

Lowell- 423k average, 350 median. (334/298)

Springdale- 378k average, 339 median. (360/315)

Fayetteville- 452k average, 372 median. (421/355)

𝐀𝐋𝐋 𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐩 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐬 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫. Our market is pretty resilient when you consider rates doubled and prices still went up. 40% of homeowners own their home outright, and a vast majority have mortgages under 5%. It’s something crazy high, like 80% or so. Good inventory is low due to that, which makes perfect sense.

Below are the transaction counts for the above in 23 vs 22. It’ll make some sense of the paragraph you hopefully just read

Bella Vista- – 𝟏,𝟏𝟏𝟖/2022 1,200 𝟔.𝟖% 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞

Bentonville- 𝟏,𝟒𝟑𝟎/2022 1,390 𝟐.𝟖% I͟N͟C͟R͟E͟A͟S͟E͟

Cave Springs- 𝟏𝟒𝟔/2022. 142

Centerton- 𝟕𝟒𝟑/2022. 917 𝟏𝟗% 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞

Rogers- 𝟏,𝟎𝟒𝟑2022 1244 𝟏𝟔% 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞

Lowell- 𝟏𝟓𝟕/2022 398 𝟔𝟎.𝟓% 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞

Springdale- 𝟗𝟎𝟓/2022 1,138 𝟐𝟎% 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞

Fayetteville- 𝟏,𝟓𝟓𝟒/ 2022 1,647 𝟓.𝟔% 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞

With rates on a somewhat recent steady decline the last couple of months, I think 2024 could be a bit wild personally if they continue to drop. It’s hard to predict but there are a ton of people who were simply priced way out when rates hit over 8%. The good news for buyers with decently higher rates than last year is it’s hard to make an investment property cash flow with a regular investor down payment. Investors and investment companies were brutally hard to compete with when rates were in the 2,3’s and 4’s. Investment rates are also higher than the owner-occupied rates you often see publicly shared. Your competition today is not an investor but it’s another regular buyer. With limited good inventory, it’s still a sellers market with roughly 2.5 months of supply. Concessions are a bit easier to come by, which is a welcome sight.


Researched and Written by: Chase White- Northwest Arkansas REALTOR®

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